Fashion industry trends in 2026: tariffs, price rises, resale and a luxury reset, with the numbers

Fashion industry trends for 2026 come down to five measurable shifts: tariffs and trade disruption, higher prices, a luxury reset, faster growth in resale and early AI shopping. Each has a source, a number and a date below. Where the number comes from a survey or a forecast, we say so.

Trend 1: tariffs and trade disruption

McKinsey and Business of Fashion's The State of Fashion 2026, as summarized by FashionUnited, found 76% of executives naming trade disruption and tariffs as the biggest theme for 2026, and 40% citing disrupted trade flows as a top risk. Sourcing costs were the most pressured economic area for 45% of respondents. We could not open McKinsey's own page this run (it returned an error), so these figures come through FashionUnited's account of the report.

Tariffs also reach company results. Amer Sports said on August 18, 2026 that net tariff refunds added 170 basis points to Technical Apparel's margin and 270 to Outdoor Performance's. For the US rates themselves see our piece on what the US charges on apparel by country.

Trend 2: prices going up

The same survey says 71% of executives planned price increases in 2026, up from 52% the previous year, and 45% of North American executives planned increases above 5%. A planned increase is an intention. It tells you what retailers expect to charge, not what shoppers will pay.

Price rises also interact with the luxury numbers below: a market that lost customers while raising tickets is one where each remaining customer matters more, which is a reading of the figures, not something either report states.

Trend 3: a luxury reset

Bain and Altagamma's Worldwide Luxury Goods Market Study, published December 18, 2025, puts 2025 luxury spending across all categories at about 1.44 trillion euros, a decline of 1% to 3% at current exchange rates, and between minus 1% and plus 1% at constant rates. Personal luxury goods, the part fashion cares about, were about 358 billion euros, around 2% below 2024's 364 billion.

Behind the headline: about 20 million consumers left the market, and the active client base is about 330 million, down from 400 million in 2022. Operating margins fell to 15% to 16% from 21% in 2022. The report is not all gloom. Its quote above notes 2025 is still 12% to 14% above 2019, and Bain's most plausible 2026 case for personal luxury goods is 3% to 5% growth. Category split in 2025: leather goods down 5% to 7%, shoes down 5% to 7%, apparel roughly flat and jewelry up 4% to 6%. Our piece on who sells luxury reads the same study for retail.

Trend 4: resale keeps outgrowing new

The State of Fashion says secondhand fashion and luxury will grow two to three times faster than first-hand through 2027. Bain puts secondhand luxury at about 50 billion euros in 2025, up 4% to 6%, in a luxury market that otherwise shrank. A forecast is not a result, but two independent publishers describe the same direction. Our resale market size piece checks the platform figures.

Trend 5: AI shopping, mostly survey so far

FashionUnited's summary reports that 41% of consumers trust generative AI search results more than traditional advertising, and that 85% of consumers are more satisfied with AI-assisted shopping than with conventional online methods. These are survey responses. They do not say how many purchases AI tools produced, and nothing we read supplies that number. Treat them as sentiment.

What else the reports flag

Creative director turnover is a trend with a count. FashionUnited's summary says 9 of the 15 largest luxury brands appointed a new creative director since September 2024, and 4 of those also changed CEO. Our tracker of creative director changes is where the latest moves sit.

The report forecasts low single digit growth: 1% to 2% in Europe and 1% to 3% in the US and China through 2026. Outdoor brands are the counter example to weak growth. Amer Sports raised full year guidance to about 24% revenue growth in 2026, with Technical Apparel revenue of about $674.2 million in the second quarter, up roughly 32.5%.

Regions and the ten year view

Bain's regional split shows who is carrying luxury. Europe's personal luxury goods were about 108 billion euros in 2025, down 1% to 3%, and the Americas about 101 billion euros, between flat and up 2%. Mainland China and Japan each fell 6% to 8%. Over 2026 to 2035 Bain expects personal luxury goods to grow 4% to 6% a year, reaching 525 billion to 640 billion euros. That is a scenario, not a measurement.

Which trends to believe

Ranked by evidence: luxury's 2025 decline is Bain's estimate for a completed year. Tariff worry is an executive survey, and Amer Sports' refunds show tariffs are in the accounts. Price rises are intentions. Resale is a forecast supported by Bain's actual figure. AI shopping is sentiment. Our own view, not a finding, is that the order matters more than the list, since a trend backed by sales data deserves more planning than one backed by an opinion poll.

Our take

The strongest 2026 story is the one with the weakest glamour: executives plan to raise prices while luxury lost 20 million customers and resale grew. Believe the Bain numbers, discount AI satisfaction polls until retailers publish sales, and watch whether Bain's 3% to 5% luxury recovery shows up in 2026 results. Skip any trend roundup that gives no year and no source.